Goldman Sachs Sees Short-Term Upside and Medium-Term Downside Risks for Brent Prices

Goldman Sachs reported that it sees upward risks for Brent oil in the short term and downward risks in the medium term. As a short-term risk, Goldman Sachs pointed to the West imposing new sanctions on Iran due to its alleged assistance to Russia in the war with Ukraine, forecasting that if sanctions tighten and Iran's oil supply decreases by 1 million barrels per day, Brent oil prices could rise to the mid-80s by the first half of 2025. Arguing that medium-term price risks for Brent oil are downward due to high idle production capacity, Goldman Sachs projected that if the Trump administration implements a 10% general tariff as expected or if OPEC supply increases, Brent could drop below $60 per barrel in 2026.